RESEARCH WORK
Accepted: 2025-10-31
Objective This study aimed to identify risk factors associated with postoperative mortality in patients with Stanford type A aortic dissection (TAAD) and to develop a nomogram-based predictive model to assist clinicians in early identification of high-risk patients, thereby optimizing treatment strategies and reducing postoperative mortality. Methods A total of 1,521 patients who underwent surgical treatment for TAAD between January 1, 2019, and July 31, 2024, were retrospectively enrolled from multiple cardiovascular surgery centers in Jiangsu Province. Based on postoperative outcomes, patients were divided into a survival group (n = 1,406) and a mortality group (n = 115). Feature selection was performed using LASSO regression, recursive feature elimination (RFE), and univariate filtering. Independent risk factors for postoperative mortality were identified using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. A nomogram prediction model was constructed based on the identified independent predictors using the Cox regression method via the rms package in R. Model performance was evaluated using calibration curves, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, precision-recall (PR) curves, and SHAP value analysis. Results Age [OR = 1.05, 95% CI (1.02–1.08), P < 0.01], length of hospital stay [OR = 0.92, 95% CI (0.88–0.95), P < 0.01], initial ICU stay duration [OR = 1.11, 95% CI (1.01–1.21), P < 0.05], treatment center [OR = 0.75, 95% CI (0.62–0.92), P < 0.05], mechanical ventilation >24 hours [OR = 3.38, 95% CI (1.48–7.73), P < 0.01], and acute kidney injury [OR = 7.99, 95% CI (2.85–22.3), P < 0.01] were identified as independent risk factors for postoperative mortality. The developed nomogram demonstrated good discrimination with a concordance index (C-index) of 0.78 [95% CI (0.73–0.809), P < 0.01]. The ROC curve showed an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.90, the PR curve indicated an average precision (AP) of 0.89, and the calibration curve showed good agreement (calibration score = 0.89) between predicted and observed outcomes. Conclusion The nomogram developed in this study provides an effective and intuitive tool for predicting postoperative mortality risk in TAAD patients. It enables early identification of high-risk individuals during the perioperative period, thereby facilitating personalized treatment planning and improving clinical outcomes.