集中管理模式下排队论M/M/C模型输入数 据精度对监护仪配置数量预测准确性的影响

谢峰; 王宇坤; 王晓龙; 侯艺威; 郭米嘉; 白玫

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1674-1633.20240999

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中国医疗设备 ›› 2025, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (4) : 97-101. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-1633.20240999

研究论著

集中管理模式下排队论M/M/C模型输入数据精度对监护仪配置数量预测准确性的影响

谢峰,王宇坤,王晓龙,侯艺威,郭米嘉,白玫

作者信息 +

Impact of Input Data Accuracy of the M/M/C Model in Queuing Theory Under Centralized Management Mode on the Accuracy of Predicting Allocation Quantity of Monitor

XIE Feng, WANG Yukun, WANG Xiaolong, HOU Yiwei, GUO Mijia, BAI Mei

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文章历史 +

摘要

目的研究集中管理模式下排队论M/M/C模型输入数据选取精度对监护仪合理配置数量预测准确性的影响｡方法选取本院11个病区作为研究对象,提取医嘱时长作为监护仪实际使用时长,按照11个病区合并计算(组别1)､内外科分别合并计算(组别2)､各病区独立计算(组别3)设立对比组别,建立排队论M/M/C预测模型,结合护理要求和排队系统等待时长曲线推测监护仪配置数量预测区间,分别对比3个组别的预测区间与实际配置数量差异值｡结果组别1模型预测差值最大(最大差值为7.84台,最小差值为2.45台),组别2模型预测差值次之(最大差值为6.73台,最小差值为2.27台), 组别3模型预测差值最小(仅有4个病区存在差异,差值为1或3台)｡3组差值之间的差异有统计学意义 (H=20.768) , (P<0.001) ),组别3模型预测差值与组别1和2的模型预测差值相比均有统计学意义(P<0.001),组别1和2模型预测差值相比差异无统计学意义( P=0.465)。结论输入数据选取精度因素对排队论M/M/C模型预测准确性具有一定影响,各医疗机构在利用排队论模型测算配置数量时,应尽量提高数据选取精度,按最小病区单元选取输入数据,并在预测结果的基础上结合临床实际情况浮动实际配置数量,提升配置数量合理性｡

Abstract

Objective To study the impact of input data selection accuracy of the M/M/C model in queuing theory on the accuracy of predicting the reasonable allocation quantity of monitors under centralized management mode. Methods A total of eleven wards were selected as research subjects, and the duration of medical orders was extracted as the actual usage time of the monitor. The comparison groups were set up according to the combined calculation of 11 wards (group 1), the combined calculation of medicine and surgery respectively (group 2), and the independent calculation of each ward (group 3), and the prediction model of M/M/C model in queuing theory was established. Combined with the nursing requirements and the waiting time curve of the queuing system, the prediction interval of the number of monitors configured was deduced, and the difference between the prediction interval and the actual number of monitors configured under three conditions was compared respectively. Results The group 1 model predicted the largest difference (maximum difference was 7.84, minimum difference was 2.45), the group 2 model predicted the next largest difference (maximum difference was 6.73, minimum difference was 2.27), and the group 3 model predicted the smallest difference (only 4 wards with differences of 1 or 3). The difference between the three groups was statistically significant (H=20.768, P<0.001), the difference between the group 3 model and the group 1 and 2 model was statistically significant (P<0.001) ,and the difference between the group 1 and 2 model was not statistically significant (P=0.465). Conclusion The selection accuracy of input data has a certain impact on the prediction accuracy of the M/M/C model in queuing theory. When calculating the number of allocation using the queuing theory model, medical institutions should improve the accuracy of data selection as far as possible, select input data according to the smallest ward unit, and adjust the actual number of allocation based on the prediction Results and the actual clinical situation to improve the rationality of the number of allocation.

导出引用

谢峰, 王宇坤, 王晓龙, 等. 集中管理模式下排队论M/M/C模型输入数据精度对监护仪配置数量预测准确性的影响[J]. 中国医疗设备, 2025, 40(4): 97-101 https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1674-1633.20240999

XIE Feng, WANG Yukun, WANG Xiaolong, et al. Impact of Input Data Accuracy of the M/M/C Model in Queuing Theory Under Centralized Management Mode on the Accuracy of Predicting Allocation Quantity of Monitor[J]. China Medical Devices, 2025, 40(4): 97-101 https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1674-1633.20240999

中图分类号： R197.39

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