Abstract：Objective To discusses the application of combined forecasting model in the management of low value medical
consumables, and predicts the inventory demand of low value medical consumables in the future. Methods Based on the historical
acquisition data of low value medical consumables from January 2017 to December 2018 in a first-class hospital at grade 3 in
Hangzhou, a combined forecasting model based on quadratic exponential smoothing model and grey Markov model was used to
determine the combined weight by using the variation coefficient method, simple weighting method and the inverse variance method,
respectively. A forecast model was established for the inventory demand of low-value medical consumables from January to April
2019. Results The mean value of relative error calculated by the three combined forecasting models was far less than 5%. Among
them, the prediction accuracy of the combination prediction was the highest, using the reciprocal variance method to determine the
weight. The relative error mean of the prediction value was 1.39%, which was close to the actual value. Conclusion The combination
model based on quadratic exponential smoothing model and grey Markov model, which is determined by the reciprocal variance
method, can accurately predict the short-term value of low-value medical consumables. According to the prediction value of the
combination model, it can provide a reliable basis for the inventory preparation of low-value medical consumables.
张林灵，郑焜. 基于组合预测模型的低值医用耗材库存需求预测[J]. 中国医疗设备, 2021, 36(8): 120-123.
ZHANG Linling, ZHENG Kun. Demand Forecast of Low Value Medical Consumables Based on Combined Forecasting Model. China Medical Devices, 2021, 36(8): 120-123.
