Research on Predicting Consumables Requisition of Anesthesiology Department in
Newly-Built General Hospital Based on R Language Time Series and ARIMA Model
HUANG Qiurui1,2a, WANG Mingming1, QIAO Shigang2a, JIN Yan2b, WANG Chen2a
1. Department of Nursing, People’s Hospital Affiliated to Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang Jiangsu 210031, China丨
2. a. Department of Anesthesiology丨 b. Department of Medical Engineering, The Affiliated Science and Technology Town Hospital of
Nanjing Medical University, Suzhou Jiangsu 215153, China
Abstract：Objective For newly-built hospital, auto regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) was used to establish an
appropriate medical economics model for expenditures, so as to predict the trend of changes in the expenditures of anesthesiology
consumables and reasonably control department budget. Methods The R software was used to establish an ARIMA model for the
consumable expenditure data of the department of anesthesiology in our hospital from June 2016 to June 2020. The actual value
of the consumable expenditure from July 2020 to June 2021 was compared with the predicted value, and the model’s performance
was evaluated. Statistical methods were used to compare the difference between the amount of anesthesia consumables spent in the
previous four years and the amount in the fifth year. Results The ARIMA(1,0,2) model was established to predict the demand for
consumables in the anesthesiology department. The ADF test of the prediction model was P<0.01. When the LB statistic was used
to test the residual sequence, P>0.05, the modeling was successful. There was no statistically significant difference in the amount of
expenditure in the first four years and the last year (P>0.05). Conclusion The ARIMA (1,0,2) model can better fit the consumables
requirements of the anesthesiology department of a newly-built general hospital, formulate a more reasonable stocking plan, reduce
the cost of inventory backlog, and provide a theoretical basis for calculating department budgets.
黄秋瑞1,2a，王明明1，乔世刚2a，金燕2b，王琛2a. 基于R语言时间序列和ARIMA模型预测新建综合医院麻醉科耗材领用的研究[J]. 中国医疗设备, 2022, 37(1): 125-127.
HUANG Qiurui1,2a, WANG Mingming1, QIAO Shigang2a, JIN Yan2b, WANG Chen2a. Research on Predicting Consumables Requisition of Anesthesiology Department in
Newly-Built General Hospital Based on R Language Time Series and ARIMA Model. China Medical Devices, 2022, 37(1): 125-127.
