Study on A Prediction Model of Malignant Probability of
Small Pulmonary Nodules with Diameter <10 mm
GU Biaoa, HAN Dongb, QIAN Longa, XU Zhongnenga, CHEN Shenga
a. Department of Thoracic Surgery; b. Department of Imaging, The Affiliated Huaian No.1 People’s Hospital of Nanjing Medical
University, Huaian Jiangsu 223300, China
Abstract：Objective To establish a prediction model of malignant probability of small pulmonary nodules with diameter <10 mm
and verify the effect. Methods The clinical data of 125 patients who underwent surgical resection of pulmonary nodules in thoracic
surgery of the Affiliated Huaian No.1 People’s Hospital of Nanjing Medical University from January 2018 to December 2019 were
retrospectively analyzed. Univariate analysis and Logistic multivariate regression analysis were conducted to construct the prediction
model of malignant probability of small pulmonary nodules. The prediction effect of the model was verified by drawing the receiver
operating characteristic (ROC) curve and calculating the area under the curve. Results The malignant probability prediction
model of small pulmonary nodules included 6 related factors, including nodule diameter >5 mm, location in upper lobe of lung, no
calcification, unsmooth edge, vascular sign and lobulation sign. The area under ROC curve was 0.901, the optimal critical value was
0.789, the sensitivity was 0.879 and the specificity was 0.734. Conclusion This model is simple, easy to operate and convenient for
clinical use, and helpful for clinical judgment of benign and malignant pulmonary nodules, so as to guide the correct treatment and
improve the prognosis of lung cancer patients.
谷彪a，韩冬b，钱龙a，徐忠能a，陈胜a. 直径<10 mm的肺小结节恶性概率预测模型研究[J]. 中国医疗设备, 2022, 37(9): 23-26.
GU Biaoa, HAN Dongb, QIAN Longa, XU Zhongnenga, CHEN Shenga. Study on A Prediction Model of Malignant Probability of
Small Pulmonary Nodules with Diameter <10 mm. China Medical Devices, 2022, 37(9): 23-26.
