上海市胸科医院（上海交通大学附属胸科医院） a. 采购中心；b. 院办；c. 医务部，上海 200030
Research on Demand Forecast of High-Value Medical Consumables in Hospital Based on Time Series Model
YANG Yuea，PAN Changqingb，ZHU Yanganga，XU Weic，WANG Tianyinga
a. Purchasing Center|b. Institute Office|c. Medical Department, Shanghai Chest Hospital Affiliated to Shanghai Jiaotong University, Shanghai 200030, China
Abstract：Objective To explore the application of time series analysis method in the prediction of the demand for high-value medical consumables in the hospital, and to analyze and predict the demand of high-value consumables in a period of time in the
future. Methods The expert modeler based on SPSS time series was used to model and predict the monthly consumption of a type of anastomat in a hospital in Shanghai from January 2016 to July 2018. Results The established model was a simple time series model
with R2=0.317 and overall relative error of 15.12%. Conclusion The simple time series model can accurately predict the demand of the anastomat, and add the predicted value into the material management system. According to the predicted value, the scientific
stock preparation can be realized, which provides data support for the reasonable management and control of medical consumables.
杨越a，潘常青b，朱燕刚a，许玮c，王天鹰a. 基于时间序列模型的医院医用高值耗材需求量预测研究[J]. 中国医疗设备, 2020, 35(12): 138-141.
YANG Yuea，PAN Changqingb，ZHU Yanganga，XU Weic，WANG Tianyinga. Research on Demand Forecast of High-Value Medical Consumables in Hospital Based on Time Series Model. China Medical Devices, 2020, 35(12): 138-141.
