Research on Forecasting Demand of Low-Cost Medical Consumables
Based on ARIMA Model
XU Liang-ye1, ZHANG Qi2,ZHANG Cheng2
1.Computer Centre, Ruijin Hospital,
Shanghai Jiao Tong University School
of Medicine, Shanghai 200025, China;
2.Industry R&D Center, WONDERS
Information Co., Ltd., Shanghai 201112,
China
Abstract：Objective Through application of time series analysis in hospital low-cost medical
consumables management, to analyze and forecast the demand of low-cost medical consumables in the
future. Methods Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used for data mining
and forecasting for monthly data of low-cost medical consumables from January 2008 to December 2016
in Shanghai Ruijin Hospital. Results The absolute error of the model was 8.58%，which controlled
in a certain range. ARIMA (6,1,3) (1,1,1) had a good fitting effect, the predicted result was close to
the actual value. Conclusion ARIMA (6,1,3) (1,1,1) model could accurately predict low-cost medical
consumables in the short-term, and apply it to the hospital consumables management information system.
The system can reasonably generate the requisition and purchase plan according to the predicted value,
realize the reasonable control of the hospital consumables, and provide a reliable basis for funding budget
applications.
许亮业1，张琪2，张诚2. 基于自回归积分滑动平均模型的医用低值耗材需求量预测研究[J]. 中国医疗设备, 2017, 32(7): 147-149.
XU Liang-ye1, ZHANG Qi2,ZHANG Cheng2. Research on Forecasting Demand of Low-Cost Medical Consumables
Based on ARIMA Model. China Medical Devices, 2017, 32(7): 147-149.
